Who Stands To Gain The Most in Iowa
One good thing about this long election is that one day, it will be over. But before that happens, there are finally going to be some things that mix it up and hopefully knock down some frontrunners.
The Iowa caucuses (not “cactuses”) are coming up. If you remember these from the election of ‘04, you might remember that Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were considered top tier Democratic candidates BEFORE Iowa. AFTER Iowa, it was all John Kerry.
Since Hillary (who you can call by just that name now, like Cher) and Rudy Guiliani are the mainstream candidates to beat, Iowa has the potential to mix things up and, in the process, do us all a lot of good.
But who stands to gain the most in Iowa? It’s definitely not the top candidates (again, Hillary and Rudy). And it’s not necessarily the #2 candidates (Barack Obama/Fred Thompson). It’s more likely the deeper wildcards (as Kerry was in ‘04) that perform unexpectedly well and, thanks to the ADD media, raise questions about the electability of the higher tier candidates.
Here are the candidates who stand to gain the most in Iowa:
1. Mitt Romney. I put Mitt here because he understands Iowa - a few months ago, he even put in extra efforts exclusively in Iowa to win a straw poll. The extra presence/advertising worked, and he won. He’s not in a terrible position going in, either: he’s basically third, but Fred Thompson(#2) is slipping and has no momentum. Winning in Iowa instantly puts Romney on the “top-tier” map again, wiping out his other mid-tier companions (Thompson and McCain, unless either one of them places above Rudy too).
2. John Edwards. He has a lot of ground to cover, which is why Iowa is crucial for him to stay off a (Presidential Candidate)/Edwards ticket. Without a good performance in Iowa, he might not even get that. He seems to get less press these days than the Republicans at his level - McCain or Romney, and with a poor performance early, he will fall of the face of the earth.
3. Barack Obama. Let’s face it: he’s a top candidate, but without Iowa, what does he have? New Hampshire or South Carolina? Please. Hillary will probably own the East coast. But Hillary is vulnerable in the Midwest, home of authentic country hicks, because she doesn’t really resonate with people who aren’t elitist moobs. At the very least, Obama needs to be close to Hillary in Iowa, but it looks much worse for him if he doesn’t win, even by .1%.
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