Things are getting a little hot for the Democrats in Iowa.  This morning’s Today Show reported that the polls in Iowa are so close between Obama-Hillary-Edwards that the margin of error could mean they’re all actually tied exactly.

Given the American Gladiator-style Eliminator that Iowa is, and its potential to shake things up, it’s entirely possible that Hillary Clinton does not end up as your Democratic candidate for President.  Meanwhile, the Republicans are close enough that any one of the top four or five guys could end up doing well (with Romney and Huckabee the current strongest in Iowa, and everyone else vying for third).

With even more Obama support for people who list him as a potential second choice (for Democrats, if you don’t get 15% of the vote, your votes will go to the voters’ second choice), it looks like a strong possibility that he takes Iowa.

So let’s say some strange things do happen, and we don’t end up getting the Hillary vs. Rudy matchup we’ve been hearing about for a year now.  If we see a matchup we didn’t expect, who wins?

Here are some potential matchups from the pool of Obama, Edwards, McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson:

Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney

Winner:  Romney.  I like Romney’s electability if he gets the nomination: he’s every bit as articulate and well-spoken as Obama is, and has the record in Massachussetts that could easily let him pretend to be centrist for the sake of being elected.  For me, Romney against Obama is the most interesting and engaging matchup possible, even if you include Hillary - either the first Mormon or the first African-American.

John Edwards vs. Mike Huckabee

Winner:  Edwards.  This is tough for me, because I have such a hard time seeing Edwards win with anyone who comes out of the Republican camp.  I don’t even know if I’m right about this - at all.

Barack Obama vs. Fred Thompson

Winner:  Obama.  It’s easier to get excited by Intro to Philosophy than it is with Fred Thompson.  This would be an ideal matchup for Obama, since his whole “change/youth” angle would work perfectly against Fred’s “crusty old man” strategy.  Not so much against McCain, even though he’s also an old man, because McCain can more easily play up experience and is more appealing to “moderates.”

John Edwards vs. John McCain

Winner:  McCain.  The battle of Johns would feature the two candidates who are currently #3 in the polls in their respective parties.  McCain’s experience and ability to go centrist would trump Edwards.

Barack Obama vs. Mike Huckabee

Winner:  Obama.  In ‘06, we elected a liberal Congress in the name of change;  which changes more from Dubya, a white governor from a southern state, or a liberal senator from Illinois who would be the first “black” President?

John Edwards vs. Mitt Romney

Winner:  Romney.  Romney matches Edwards in the “charm” department and easily beats him in policy.  The only thing that might work against him are the ‘04 conservative Christians that elected Dubya but don’t want to vote for a Mormon.

Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Winner:  Obama.  McCain’s got the experience like Fred Thompson and the trustworthiness that Thompson lacks.  Still, There has to be more than one scenarior (Obama vs. Huckabee) in which Obama could beat a Republican.

John Edwards vs. Fred Thompson

Winner:  Edwards.  Fred Thompson is just not going to be our next President.

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