Before Iowa, Who Wins the Primary?
A little while ago I wrote a post about potential Presidential matchups. Now, I’m announcing my official pre-Iowa prediction: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will get the nominations.
What makes me say this?
Mitt Romney:
Romney has had a solid base in Iowa for a long time, since he’s probably the most avid campaigner there. Even when Huckabee overtook him and challenged his Iowa lead, Romney was the only one who could still compete for the top spot.
If Huckabee wins Iowa, it’s with Romney as number two, which won’t kill his campaign but the others will slide (Giuliani, Thompson). Then he’ll win New Hampshire (he currently has a double-digit lead), and Huckabee will likely struggle with New Englanders. Then guess who has the momentum into South Carolina, even though Huckabee might have won Iowa?
Barack Obama:
Hillary Clinton is sinking fast. Even if it’s just a perception that she is, it will cost her votes. Obama has turned New Hampsire into a toss-up and is riding high on the Oprah wave.
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