Very.  We’re finally there - one day out.  The Iowa caucuses loom before us and, if you like Presidential elections, it couldn’t get much better.  There’s no incumbent candidates on either side, and polls have swung around, positioning in and out of statistical ties.

All we’ve heard is “Iowa” for the past few weeks and months.  Iowa this, Iowa that.  This candidate is doing well - but how is he doing in IOWA?  All that talk and excitement may seem overdone, but the Iowa caucuses will probably either produce our clear nominees or mix things up beyond recognition.  Since the election was the biggest story in late ‘07, and nothing really happened, it’s finally time to take these candidates out for a spin.

Remember what happened to Howard Dean, who was a Democratic frontrunner once upon a time in 2004?  He got to Iowa, finished third, went “BYAAAAAHHHH!!!!!” and disappeared from the race.  Dick Gephardt, who seemed like another frontrunner, might be shoveling poo in Greenland.

John Kerry, who then had the kind of support John McCain sees now (support in New England, but only a top 3 or 4 candidate), won Iowa and became the nominee.

Iowa means a lot to both parties.  For the Democrats, basically everyone needs Iowa if they want to appear legitimate.  For the smaller candidates (Biden and Dodd), the Iowa caucuses are basically like “The Eliminator” from American Gladiators - you gotta do well here, or else you were just shooting tennis balls out of huge guns for no good reason.  For Republicans, Huckabee’s surge in Iowa made him a top candidate and someone to be gone after.

The polls have been swaying, but the latest I hear is that it’s Hillary 1, Obama 2, and Huckabee 1, Romney 2.  How good are these polls at predicting?  Well, they do reflect the surges and swings.  Check out this poll from Iowa the week before the 2004 caucuses:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/12-28%20polls%202004.php

The top two - Kerry and Edwards - ended up being the Democratic ticket.

A lot of Republicans will probably want to see Romney win Iowa, because the alternative is Huckabee, who is like the 2008 Republican version of Howard Dean, only that Dean was a liberal and Huckabee is a…moderate?  What is he?  A social conservative with liberal fiscal values?  A social moderate?

In any case, as many have written, Huckabee is a dream candidate for the Democrats because he sort of typifies what liberals think bad conservatives are.  He’s a big fat (well, was) white guy who shoots guns and doesn’t believe in evolution.  If he gets far enough, it will be easy for Democrats to portray him as Bush Jr., Jr.  And if they still can’t beat him, hey, they still have a fiscal liberal on their hands.

Iowa will also do some weeding out.  Ron Paul backers got angry when he got cut out of some ABC News and Fox News debates that will happen before New Hampshire.  We’ll probably be seeing some of the really small guys (Dodd, Biden, Hunter, Kucinich) step out in the weeks ahead.

How big is Iowa?  Huge.  It’s not everything, but it’s going to separate things out for us, and we’ll finally have something tangible to look at.

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