Oscar Predictions 2008
Since 2000 I can remember going category-by-category and predicting who would win each Oscar, but I’ve never posted my predictions up on BipolarNation before the actual night. Considering that the 
Oscars are this Sunday and I only have this one weekday to post before it happens, it’s the perfect time to do it.
Get pumped, baby! It’s the Oscars! Even in a relatively weak year like this (though not as bad as the 2006 awards; remember “Crash” beating out “Brokeback Mountain”?), this is always fun. The beauty of picking the Oscars is you don’t need to have seen the movies to do relatively well. So far, I’ve counted that I’ve only seen “Transformers,” “Norbit,” and “The Bourne Ultimatum.” Yeah, I saw “Norbit.”
Best Picture
“Juno”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Michael Clayton”
“Atonement”
“There Will Be Blood”
Prediction: “No Country for Old Men.” It’s between No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, and both movies have writer/directors behind them. But “Country” is still the favorite, as it won the “Best Cast” SAG and the Director’s Guild award.
Best Director
Julian Schnabel, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
Jason Reitman, “Juno”
Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”
Prediction: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men.” Given their resume together and that they’ve never won an Oscar, this is probably the year. Not that the Oscars necessarily go to directors with the resume every time, but the other contenders, at least Anderson and Reitman, are young.
Best Actor
Daniel-Day Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”
Tommy Lee Jones, “In the Valley of Elah”
Viggo Mortensen, “Eastern Promises”
George Clooney, “Michael Clayton”
Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd”
Prediction: Daniel-Day Lewis, “There Will Be Blood.” He was robbed by Adrian Brody and his Halle Berry-kissing behind in 2003 after Lewis dominated “Gangs of New York,” and now Oscar voters are seeing what appears to be a similarly intense performance. Lewis has won an Oscar before, but he’s still due for another.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
Julie Christie, “Away From Her”
Marion Cotillard, “La Vie en Rose”
Laura Linney, “The Savages”
Ellen Page, “Juno”
Prediction: Julie Christie, “Away From Her.” This is a tough one, because without this category, “Juno” doesn’t have much else to get. Roger Ebert predicted Ellen Page from “Juno” and said his heart was with her, but his brain was with Christie, who won the SAG award. The only other person with a chance is Cate Blanchett, but she’s nominated for Best Supporting Actress too, so no one will feel sorry for her.
Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men”
Hal Holbrook, “Into the Wild”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Charlie Wilson’s War”
Tom Wilkinson, “Michael Clayton”
Prediction: Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men.” You just get that feeling about some categories, where you keep hearing about someone and some movie, and you know that no matter who else is in the category, they’re going to win it. That’s Javier Bardem ‘08.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There”
Ruby Dee, “American Gangster”
Saoirse Ronan, “Atonement”
Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone”
Tilda Swinton, “Michael Clayton”
Prediction: Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There.” This is actually a pretty stacked category, and apparently one without a big frontrunner. Ruby Dee won the SAG, but Cate Blanchett will get bonus points for playing a man, even if it was Bob Dylan. Tilda Swinton is another contender.
Best Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody, “Juno”
Nancy Oliver, “Lars and the Real Girl”
Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco, “Ratatouille”
Tamara Jenkins, “The Savages.”
Prediction: Diablo Cody, “Juno.” This will be Juno’s win for the night, since the other categories are tougher and the big dogs (”No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood”) are adapted screenplays. Cody is a former stripper. As a proponent of strippers’ rights, this will be a great moment.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Hampton, “Atonement”
Sarah Polley, “Away from Her”
Ronald Harwood, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”
Prediction: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men.” I really, really want to pick Paul Thomas Anderson, who the Academy might want to recognize this year in some form, but the Coen brothers won the WGA award and I want to see how much I should weigh that.
Best Foreign Film
“Beaufort,” Israel
“The Counterfeiters,” Austria
“Katyn,” Poland
“Mongol,” Kazakhstan
“12,” Russia
Prediction: “Beaufort.” I usually feel that I can predict the Oscars for these smaller categories by watching the brief clips beforehand. When that happens, I might see another movie that I like to win better, but I have to put a prediction down here. So there it is. I usually predict these unknowns by what other people think or by how good their title is.
Best Live Action Short Film
“At Night”
“Il Supplente (The Substitute)”
“Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)”
“Tanghi Argentini”
“The Tonto Woman”
Prediction: “Le Mozart des Pickpockets.” Based on its title alone.
Best Visual Effects
“The Golden Compass”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
“Transformers”
Prediction: “Transformers.” It has to be “Transformers,” which was essentially a two-hour demonstration of the current possibilities of special effects. This was one of the few movies I saw.
Best Animated Feature Film
“Persepolis”
“Ratatouille”
“Surf’s Up”
Prediction: “Ratatouille.” To quote Roger Ebert, who predicted the same: “Ratatouille hands-down. Period. Case closed.”
Best Art Direction
“American Gangster”
“Atonement”
“The Golden Compass”
“Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
“There Will Be Blood”
Prediction: “Sweeney Todd.” The “out there” movies usually win this category, and it’s only won by the big boys if there’s a clear favorite like Titanic or Braveheart.
Best Cinematography
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
“Atonement”
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
“No Country for Old Men”
“There Will Be Blood”
Prediction: “No Country for Old Men.” I’ve heard “Atonement” is a contender here, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it win. I’ve seen “Jesse James” predicted here as well.
Best Sound Mixing
“The Bourne Ultimatum”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Ratatouille”
“3:10 to Yuma”
“Transformers”
Prediction: “Transformers,” for integrating the ko-ko-chee-chee classic Transformers sound.
Best Sound Editing
“The Bourne Ultimatum”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Ratatouille”
“There Will Be Blood”
“Transformers”
Prediction: “The Bourne Ultimatum,” which was definitely an edit-fest, and which I also predict will win best editing.
Best Original Score
“Atonement,” Dario Marianelli
“The Kite Runner,” Alberto Iglesias
“Michael Clayton,” James Newton Howard
“Ratatouille,” Michael Giacchino
“3:10 to Yuma,” Marco Beltrami
Prediction: “Atonement.” Having heard none of these, I’m going with “Atonement,” which will need to be recognized in some form.
Best Original Song
“Falling Slowly” from “Once,” Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted,” Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush.”
“So Close” from “Enchanted,” Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted,” Alan Menken and Stephen Schwartz
Prediction: “Falling Slowly” from “Once.” I’m deferring to Roger Ebert’s pick here.
Best Costume
“Across the Universe”
“Atonement”
“Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
“La Vie en Rose”
“Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Prediction: “Elizabeth: The Golden Age.” Right up the Academy’s alley in this category: historical and extravagant. That’s the last time I will use the word “extravagant” in this post, and maybe ever.
Best Documentary Feature
“No End in Sight”
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience”
“Sicko”
“Taxi to the Dark Side”
“War/Dance”
Prediction: “Sicko.” I’m surprised people aren’t talking about the possibility Michael Moore wins and gets to talk to millions of people again.
Best Documentary (short subject)
“Freeheld”
“La Corona (The Crown)”
“Salim Baba”
“Sari’s Mother”
Prediction: “Sari’s Mother.” This might be the most obscure category on the entire broadcast.
Best Film Editing
“The Bourne Ultimatum”
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
“Into the Wild”
“No Country for Old Men”
“There Will Be Blood”
Prediction: “The Bourne Ultimatum.” Excellent movie, interesting editing, tough category that really could even go to “Into the Wild.”
Best Makeup
“La Vie en Rose”
“Norbit”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
Prediction: “La Vie en Rose.” I still remember being mad that Star Trek: First Contact lost to Rick Baker and “The Nutty Professor” in this category back in 1997. I’m presuming the Academy has had enough of Eddie Murphy’s fat characters.
Best Animated Short Film
“I Met the Walrus”
“Madame Tutli-Putli”
“Meme Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)”
“My Love (Moya Lyubov)”
“Peter & the Wolf”
Prediction: “Meme Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis.” I was wrong. THIS is the most obscure category.
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