Updating the annual tradition of trying to predict the Oscar winners. Last year, I did great with the big categories – I nailed Picture, Director, Actor, Actress (I think, I’m too lazy to look it up), Supporting Actor, Original/Adapted Screenplay (again, I think, too lazy).

Well the Oscars are back, and once again I haven’t seen most of the movies to come out – though I’m more interested in doing that this year as opposed to last year. I should add that I get a lot of help from Roger Ebert.  Here are my Oscar predictions.

Best Picture

“Slumdog Millionaire”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“The Reader”

Prediction: “Slumdog Millionaire.” CCBB has the most nominations, which makes it a sort-of favorite, but Slumdog Millionaire has the buzz, the “non-American culture” factor that the Oscars love, and great word-of-mouth. I consider CCBB the only other real contender for this category.

Best Director

David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Prediction: Danny Boyle. It’s incredibly tempting to go with the surprise of Gus Van Sant and “Milk.” Van Sant is one of those Hollywood names that actors seem to know better than the commoners, and the Penn/Gay Politician combo is like butter to those libs. But, man, I just can’t not take Danny Boyle riding the Slumdog Millionaire train.

Best Actor

Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Prediction: Sean Penn. Although it seems obvious that Sean Penn will win because of the lib factor, this category is pretty stacked. Mickey Rourke won the Golden Globe, Brad Pitt is Brad Pitt, and Frank Langella seems to make a solid dark horse. I am very conflicted about this one, but I predict Rourke the second-likeliest to get it.

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

Prediction: Kate Winslet. Ebert says it’s between Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet, but I have a feeling it might be between Winslet and Anne Hathaway. Okay, maybe not – maybe a three-way tie. I think it might be more likely that Melissa Leo gets it ahead of Angelina Jolie, but that’s because I assume everyone’s jealous of how hot Angelina Jolie is. I give it to Winslet because I’m pretty sure she’s never won one, and she’s due.

Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey, Jr. “Tropic Thunder”
Phillip Seymour-Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”

Prediction: Heath Ledger. This is the lock of the night, so instead I’ll use this time to address how insane it was that Tom Cruise was nominated for a Golden Globe for his ridiculous role in “Tropic Thunder.” That was a motherbleeping sham. A sham!

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Christina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”

Prediction: Penelope Cruz. My wildcard of the night – it’s a pretty tough category actually. Marissa Tomei already has one, Viola Davis was supposed to be great in “Doubt” but Amy Adams might split that movie up. I’d also like to mention that Penelope Cruz is hot, I don’t care what people say about her nose. She looks like a bird, so what? A hot bird.

Animated Feature

“Bolt”
“Kung-Fu Panda”
“Wall-E”

Prediction: Wall-E. This is always the easiest to pick, and Wall-E was even nominated by some awards thingie as best picture overall.

Editing

“The Dark Knight”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Prediction: The Dark Knight. I think the Dark Knight will get a ton of “technical” Oscars ala The Matrix. It really should have been nominated for Best Picture, but I think it will get acknowledge for categories like this. Slumdog Millionaire is a big contender here though.

Writing (Original)

Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”
Martin McDonagh, “In Bruges”
Mike Leigh, “Happy Go Lucky”
Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, Stanton and Pete Doctor story, “Wall-E”

Prediction: Milk. It’s the only screenplay in this category that’s also up for Best Picture. I consider “In Bruges” and “Wall-E” the other contenders, as “In Bruges” got some Golden Globe love.

Writing (Adapted)

Eric Roth, Roth and Robin Swicord story, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”
Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”
David Hare, “The Reader”
Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire. Stacked category! But I think momentum carries this one

Cinematrography

“Changeling”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Prediction: The Dark Knight. Slumdog Millionaire and CCBB are the runners-up here.

Foreign Film

“The Baader Meinhof Complex”
“The Class”
“Departures”
“Revanche”
“Waltz With Bashier”

Prediction: Waltz With Bashier. I made this pick with help from Roger Ebert.

Music (Score)

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Defiance”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“Wall-E”

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire – this might be an early indication that some of my other Slumdog Millionaire picks stand a good chance.

Music (Song)

“Down to Earth,” Wall-E
“Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
“O Saya, “Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Down to Earth. Two Slumdog Millionaire nominations might split its votes up.

Short Film (Live Action)

“Auf Der Strecke”
“Manon on the Asphalt”
“New Boy”
“The Pig”
“Spielzeugland”

Prediction: Spielzeugland. Takes place in 1942, which of course is the Holocaust era. The Oscars seem to show preference for that type of movie.

Short Film (Animated)

“Oktapodi”
“La Maison En Petits Cubes”
“Lavatory – Lovestory”
“Presto”
“This Way Up”

Prediction: Oktapodi. I don’t know.

Visual Effects

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”

Prediction: The Dark Knight. Again, I think it has a grip on the technical awards.

Sound Mixing

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“The Dark Knight”
“Wall-E”
“Wanted”

Prediction: The Dark Knight.

Sound Editing

“The Dark Knight”
“Iron Man”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“Wall-E”
“Wanted”

Prediction: The Dark Knight.

Art Direction

“Changeling”
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“The Duchess”
“Revolutionary Road”

Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Dang, tough category actually. They love the period movies for this one, so that would be “The Duchess.” But The Duchess has no other nominations, and CCBB does.

Makeup

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army”

Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.